Lose the Debate, Win the Election

As I left at friend's apartment at 5am on Saturday morning Berlin time after watching the first presidential debate, I admit was not a happy Christopher. My chosen, cherished candidate had disappointed me. The opposition, I felt, gave an unusually strong and coherent performance. I decided to just go to bed and spare myself what I was sure would be dispiriting post-debate analysis.

When I woke up later that afternoon and crawled to my computer, though, I was greeted by something rather surprising. Obama had won the debate--so said the snap polls--and most commentators were busying themselves trying to explain why Obama had been deemed the more appealing contender.

Had I seen the same debate as everyone else? Am I living on another planet? I struggled for an explanation. Was this evidence of media bias? Or did Obama's campaign simply outmaneuver the McCain camp in post-debate spin? Or am I simply hopelessly out of touch?

Whatever the explanation, I now feel more confident about Obama's chances for winning the presidency than I have at perhaps any other point this year. What his victorious failure in Friday night's debate proves is that Obama is so firmly in command of the election narrative that no intercession of real events will able to halt his progress.

McCain could hardly have hoped for a better performance. He is almost certain to do worse in later debates. Obama could still falter, but it is far liklier that he'll put on a better, more energetic and personable show in the debates to come.

The point is not that McCain failed to acheive his "game-changer": the point is rather that game can no longer be changed. Obama's lead, I now believe, is becoming entrenched. Gallup actually has his number increasing by three points since the debate.

If Obama can do this well while doing this badly, then the election is over.